You could call it "bathroom politics."
House Republicans believe they have seized on a potential wedge issue for 2024: transgender athletes competing in sports against women.
Republicans told voters they would drill down on inflation and energy prices if voters awarded them the House majority last fall, but they also assured their base they would wage battles as culture warriors for conservatives. They would challenge "radical" school boards and weed out inappropriate books from the curriculum.
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Then it was on to passing a bill on transgender athletics.
The House approved the bill 219-203 on a party line vote this week.
Republicans framed the fight over transgender athletes as an encroachment on women’s rights.
"We have worked too damn hard to put up with the bulls--- that the left that wants to take our achievements away from us," said Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C.
"Anyone who claims to be a feminist or believe in what feminism was founded upon should proudly stand with us and vote for this bill to protect and preserve women's sports for real biological women and girls," proclaimed Rep. Beth Van Duyne, R-Texas.
"If you want to be a transgender, that’s your right," said Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Mich. "But what about my rights? What about the rights of my daughters? That is where we’ve lost our mind."
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Democrats accused Republicans of an assault on transgender persons.
"This mere debate has traumatized trans kids and their families across the country," said Rep. Mark Takano, D-Calif., on the House floor. "Eighty-five percent of transgender and nonbinary youth say that the debates around anti-trans bills negatively impacted their mental health."
The bill only prevents those who were born male from playing women’s sports. It doesn’t bar naturally-born females from playing sports with men.
The federal government’s Title IX prohibits sex discrimination in education and sports in the name of equality.
"The left's lunacy is robbing women and girls of equal opportunities in the name of inclusion," said House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn.
Riley Gaines is a former collegiate swimmer at the University of Kentucky. Gaines swam the 200 freestyle in the 2022 NCAA Championships, competing against transgender swimmer Lia Thomas. They tied for fifth place.
"It’s almost ironic," said Gaines on Fox. "The left was once a party that embraced women and fought for women’s rights. And now we’ve seen this narrative being totally flipped. It just shows how the war on women is underway and the Democrats will pay for this in 2024."
This is how Republicans believe they discovered their classic wedge issue against Democrats at the ballot box.
"I just don't understand what's motivating the Democrats on this," Ari Fleischer, who was press secretary for former President George W. Bush, said on Fox. "I get identity politics. But identity politics, to the degree where you were so unfair to a huge group of Americans, women."
But Loyola Marymount University political science professor Gabrielle Magni isn’t convinced.
"Trans issues and trans rights are not going to be very effective at mobilizing voters in a general election," said Magni. "In a general election, moderate voters play an important role. Many moderate voters are increasingly turned off by the culture wars that we have seen."
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Magni notes that if anything, Republican opposition to transgender athletes is more likely to energize young, liberal voters. Magni notes what happened with voters on abortion last year.
"I think the effect is going to be mobilizing supporters of trans rights (and) voting against the party pushing for these bills," said Magni.
Democrats — and some Republicans — have said the right is already out of touch with centrist voters on guns and abortion. That’s why liberals portray the transgender bill as just plain mean.
"Where is the decency on the other side of the aisle?" asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. "You want to bully trans kids? And create an issue because you think it's politically going to benefit you? I believe it will not."
Democrats picked up on some of the scorching rhetoric from Republicans.
"I don’t care how many surgeries you have. I don’t care how many chemicals you put into your body. You are not going to be a biological woman," said Van Duyne.
"What is insidious is allowing men in girls' locker rooms as they're changing. As they're showering. That's perverted. It's insidious. It's disgusting, and we want to make sure we're doing everything we can to protect women and girls," said Mace.
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In some respects, Republicans were speaking in "code" to base voters. "Transgender" issues could appear to be an "urban" or "coastal" issue compared to the concerns of conservative Americans in rural areas or the middle of the country.
The House bill will expire in the Senate, and President Biden threatened a veto. So even if the measure decelerates on Capitol Hill, Republicans hope it gains steam among their voters. It’s issues like this which help Republicans in primaries. They also can raise serious money off it. In short, this type of messaging boosts Republicans in certain quarters — voters who understand "the code."
"It works in mobilizing the most conservative supporters of the party and mobilizing activists," said Magni. "Trans issues are quite important for a small group of voters that can become critical when elections are close."
But Democrats say this bill isn’t consistent with conservative values. Republicans long held that Washington should stay out of private issues. That’s to say nothing of local decisions in education and free enterprise. Instead, House Republicans approved a nationwide, federal ban on transgender athletes instead of relying on private organizations.
"The NCAA already has a policy as it relates to this issue. So does the International Olympic Committee. So does the Track and Field Association," said Jeffries.
However, it’s possible that Republicans could stumble into the same problem they faced on abortion and guns. That is why political observers are skeptical that Republicans can flip transgender questions into a wedge issue.
"Younger voters are much more likely to be supportive of trans rights and much more likely to have [trans persons] as friends. As a consequence, this becomes a personal issue to younger voters," said Magni. "They’re more likely to turn out and vote on Election Day because they see negative impacts that these issues have on people that they care about."
The electoral landscape for 2024 hasn’t yet formed. We don’t know what issues could emerge. Former President Donald Trump and his baggage are likely to dominate. The same with Biden’s record. The performance of House Republicans also bears watching.
"Transgender athletes" probably won’t rise to the fore. But the issue could resonate among key conservatives and voters who believe Democrats have veered too far to the left.
