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Larry Summers says 'more likely than not' there will be a recession within 18 months

Former treasury secretary Larry Summers warned Thursday that the U.S. will "more likely than not" experience a recession in the next 18 months.

Former treasury secretary Larry Summers predicted that America will experience a recession within the next 18 months during an appearance on CNN's "The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer Thursday.

"I think it's more likely than not that sometime in the next year or 18 months we will have a recession. I think that's a consequence of the excesses that the economy has been through, and historical experience suggests that the kind of inflation we have rarely returns to normal levels, to target levels of around 2 percent without some kind of recession," Summers said. 

"Now, I don’t think that means we’re going to have something like we had after COVID or something like we had during the [2008] financial crisis, but I do think that we had a period of very substantial stimulus and I think the other side of that is likely to be a downturn," he continued.


Summers, who served as the treasury secretary during the Clinton administraion and as an economic adviser during the Obama administration, noted during the interview that OPEC's decision to reduce oil production will exacerbate inflation and heighten the chances of a recession. He argued the United States must increase its domestic production of oil.

He argued that the U.S. must reduce "its dependence on unstable and problematic parts of the world for our energy." 

"That means Senator Manchin's permitting policies, whether its permitting pipelines or permitting more natural gas production, or permitting more electricity transmission, need to move as rapidly as posissible," Summers said.


"Natural gas, despite being a hydrocarbon, is a good thing not a bad thing and the more of it we produce the better we're going to be, the more secure we're going to be, and actually cause it will often replace coal the less hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide we will be emitting into the air," Summers continued. 

Democrats, such as Rep. Rashida Tlaib, Mich., have railed against domestic natural gas production. At a House Financial Services Committee hearing last month, Tlaib lambasted the CEOs of America's largest banks for refusing to adhere to her radical climate demands. 

After J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told Tlaib that her demand to cut off all financing to all oil and gas projects "would be the road to Hell for America", Tlaib attempted to spark a bank run against his company. 

Summers has been sounding the alarm about a recession in recent months. In September, Summers told Bloomberg News that "we are almost certainly going to see a downturn in the economy" in the near future.

During the early days of the Biden administration, Summers warned his fellow Democrats about inflation. His warnings were dismissed by most Democrats. 

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