Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ALNY) stock price action has been volatile but is uptrending and has gained 100% in the last two years. The uptrend is driven by increasing expectations for market-disrupting heart treatment and could double the price again. The latest action has the market up more than 65% in the last two months and heading to the $350 to $415 range based on the technicals.
The treatment in question is vutrisiran. Vutrisiran has already been approved for certain cardiovascular therapies and has completed late-stage trials for expanded use. The expanded use is today's catalyst as vutrisiran will rival Pfizer’s (NYSE: PFE) blockbuster tafamidis. Tafamidis sales will top $3 billion in 2024 and are growing at a high 30% pace, so this is a huge win for Alnylam should vutrisiran get approved. The latest data is promising.
Alnylam invigorated its market earlier this year with the preliminary results of its expanded use test and recently released the completed version. The completed version shows that the drug meets its primary goals with a 28% reduction in the composite of all-cause mortality and recurrent cardiovascular events. Regarding mortality, vutrisiran reduced the all-cause mortality rate by 31% and 36% in the 33-36 month double-blind and up to month 42 studies. The data keeps the company on track to submit for approvals later this year, setting it to begin marketing the expanded use in 2025.
Analysts Increase Price Targets for Alnylam Following Strong Results
Alnylam currently markets four pharmaceutical therapies, gaining traction with sales in 2024. The Q2 results show revenue growth accelerating to 100% and outpacing the consensus estimate by 5000 basis points on strong product sales. Product sales are critical to the business and are up 34% to $410 million, accounting for 62% of quarterly revenue and driving cash flow improvement. The combined sales of Onpattro and AMVUTTRA are driving growth, up 37% on a 40% gain in the U.S.
The critical detail is that the expanded use of vutrisiran will amplify revenue of $695.83 million and likely double with a chance of tripling soon after the launch. Assuming vutrisiran takes even a third of the tafamidis sales, it’ll be worth $1 billion annually.
Analysts are raising their estimates for the stock price because of the results and outlook. MarketBeat tracks 24 analysts with ratings on the stock, so there is a high conviction for the Moderate Buy rating. The Moderate Buy rating has been firm for over a year and is compounded by an increasing stock price estimate. The consensus of $279 is up 28% from a low set earlier this year and is 10% higher than the current action, with revisions leading to the high-end range. The freshest targets include the new high of $400 and suggest a move to the $350 range or a 40% gain is likely within the next year.
Institutional Activity Creates a Headwind for the Market
Insiders have been selling into the rally, but this isn’t a problem because they own a small 1.5% of the stock. Share-based compensation is part of the package, and it’s not surprising, given the increase in share prices. The fact that institutional investors are selling into the rally is more problematic. The good news is that selling in the first half of the quarter is light and offset to a degree by buying, so it isn’t a big problem yet. However, institutions own more than 90% of the stock, so institutional selling could become a big problem if the story unfolds poorly.
The technical action in ALNY stock is favorable to investors. The market is up 65% from recent lows and establishing a base of support at a higher level. The activity suggests another $100 to 65% movement, with projections from the $250 level giving targets of $350 to $415 to align with the consensus figures. This movement may come with or without another catalyst because the strong technical indications include an extreme peak in MACD coincident with the price action breaking out to a multi-year high. 
