The year is nearly over and the U.S. will see Donald Trump in the White House in 2025. Ryan Detrick’s analysis of historical equity returns found that stocks historically do better in the first two years of a president who was re-elected versus a new president in office. The key question is whether Trump 2.0 represents a re-election or a new term.

I unpack that question by focusing on the economic effects of Trump’s key initiatives, namely the TCJA tax cut extension, tariffs and immigration.

The full post can be found here.