Nearly two weeks after President Biden announced a sweeping executive order aimed at reducing migrant arrivals on the southern border, the latest Fox News national survey finds a majority of voters approve of restricting the number of asylum seekers entering the U.S. – and like the idea even more when Biden’s name is not attached to the plan.
In addition, Biden’s approval rating on immigration has crept up 5 points since March and now stands at the highest it has been in a year, while former President Trump’s edge on handling the issue is down, leading to a tight race between the two veteran candidates.
(Biden’s) restrictions on asylum seekers
The poll, released Thursday, features a split-sample test of support for the policy of restricting the number of migrants allowed to enter the country via asylum claims. Half of voters were asked how they feel about Biden’s executive order implementing this policy and nearly 6 in 10 (57%) approve of the action while about 4 in 10 disapprove (38%).
The other half were asked about the proposal without Biden’s name attached or mention of an executive order. In this scenario, approval jumps to 66% with just 3 in 10 (29%) disapproving. So, while voters approve of Biden’s plan by almost 20 points, support increases to 37 points when he’s not associated with it.
There are differences by party, gender, age, and race depending on how the question is asked. Men, White voters, voters ages 45 and over, and Republicans are all more likely to favor restricting the number of asylees when Biden’s name is not mentioned, while suburban women, nonwhite voters and Democrats are all more likely to favor the plan when he is attached. Voters under age 45 feel about the same whether the president is referred to or not.
The popularity of Biden’s executive action most likely gave him a boost in his immigration approval rating: 35% approve vs. 30% in March. Still, 63% disapprove of his handling of the issue for a net negative rating of 28 points.
On Biden’s overall job performance, 45% approve while 55% disapprove.
FOX NEWS POLL: A MAJORITY CONTINUES TO SIDE WITH THE ISRAELIS OVER THE PALESTINIANS
The survey uses a similar split-sample to test the effect of Trump’s name on a proposal to exempt tips from workers’ federal income taxes. Trump said he would do this if he were elected during a campaign speech on June 10 in Las Vegas. When Trump is associated with the plan, voters back it by 30 points (62% approve vs. 32% disapprove), but when his name is removed, that increases to 39 points (68% vs. 29%).
Here the partisan divide is sharp -- by 10 points Democrats disapprove of the proposal when Trump’s name is mentioned, while they approve by 40 points when it isn’t. Republicans approve the plan by 71 points when Trump’s name is included and by 46 points when it’s not.
"The impact of partisan polarization on support for policies is clear," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys alongside Democrat Chris Anderson. "Most voters support limiting asylum seekers on the southern border and most like exempting tips from income taxes, but a chunk of partisans cannot bring themselves to say they favor something if the other side’s candidate is the one the behind it. Maybe Congress needs to make sponsorship of bills anonymous so we can get something done."
Immigration and the 2024 race
The presidential race continues to be close, even as Biden bests Trump for the first time since October in a hypothetical two-way rematch (50% vs. 48%). Biden also has a 1-point edge in the expanded ballot (43% Biden, 42% Trump, 10% Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% apiece to Cornel West and Jill Stein).
Voters say this election will be more about the issues (59%) than character (29%), so the fact that over half say immigration (52%) will be extremely important to their vote, means something.
Yet, while immigration scores high on voters’ list of priorities, it is not at the very top. The most important issues are the future of American democracy (68%) and the economy (66%), followed by stability and normalcy (58%), immigration, and health care (52% each). The next tier is abortion (47% extremely important) and guns (45%) with the lowest tier coming in below 40%: standing up to elite interests (37%), climate change (33%), and Israel-Hamas war (32%).
Three-quarters of Republicans see immigration as extremely important; the only issue that ranks higher for them is the economy. For Democrats and Independents, immigration doesn’t even land in their top five issues.
Trump is preferred on two of the top five issues, including immigration, where he is seen as better to handle by 9 points. Still, that’s down from +15 points in May. He also is trusted on the economy, but his edge there is also down since May (from +13 to +5). Trump is favored on the Israel-Hamas war by 4 points.
Biden prevails on health care (+10) and the future of American democracy (+6) and commands a substantial lead on the less salient issues of climate change (+20) and abortion (+13). Neither has a clear advantage on stability/normalcy (Biden +3), elite interests (Biden +2), and guns (Trump +2).
"The fact that a majority approves of Biden’s executive order restricting asylum seekers is significant," says Anderson. "If Biden can mute Trump’s advantages on immigration and the economy, Trump loses the power of two of his key wedge issues that resonate beyond his base."
Despite some shifts toward Biden, the immigration issue remains important to Trump’s prospects. And while immigration is in the middle of the pack when it comes to importance of issues, those saying it is extremely important to their vote back Trump by 37 points.
But even here, there is some troubling news for the former president: 1 in 10 voters who feel Trump would better handle immigration support Biden in the vote preference. Trump may be helped by the enthusiasm of Republican voters generally and "immigration voters" specifically.
FOX NEWS POLL: THREE-POINT SHIFT IN BIDEN-TRUMP MATCHUP SINCE MAY
Overall, two-thirds of voters are extremely motivated to vote this year, but more Republicans (74%) than Democrats (64%) feel that way. Among extremely motivated voters, 6 in 10 say immigration will be extremely important to their vote and think Trump can better handle it.
Split sample question wording & methodology statement
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Here is the wording of the split sample questions asked in the June Fox News national survey. Half of respondents were asked Sample A and half Sample B:
[SPLIT A] Do you approve or disapprove of President Biden’s executive order on immigration that restricts the number of asylum seekers entering the U.S. on the southern border?
[SPLIT B] Do you approve or disapprove of restricting the number of asylum seekers entering the U.S. on the southern border?
[SPLIT A] Do you approve or disapprove of former President Trump’s proposal to eliminate federal taxes on tips paid to workers?
[SPLIT B] Do you approve or disapprove of eliminating federal taxes on tips paid to workers?
CLICK HERE FOR TOPLINE AND CROSSTABS
Conducted June 14-17 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,095 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (130) and cellphones (700) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (265). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Results based on the split samples have a margin of sampling error of ± 4 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, the Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
