As President Biden prepares for his State of the Union address, there is an avalanche of bad news hitting him in the latest Fox News survey. Majorities of voters disapprove of the job he’s doing, are unhappy with how things are going in the country, and say the administration has mostly failed at handling national priorities.
The survey finds Biden’s worst ratings are on border security: 71% think the administration has mostly failed on improving the situation at the border, while 24% say it has mostly succeeded.
That makes sense when 78% describe the border situation either as an emergency or a major problem. Among Democrats, 66% call it an emergency/major problem, and while 82% blame the situation on Congressional inaction, 51% in Biden’s own party blame him for not enforcing laws already on the books. Overall, 81% blame Congress for what is happening at the border and 72% blame Biden, giving credence to the White House strategy of trying to limit the issue’s effect on the election by diverting blame to Congress.
Next, 69% feel Biden has mostly failed at unifying the country, and almost as many say the same about making the country safer (63%), handling the economy (61%), improving America’s image around the world (61%). Additionally, 58% say he has mostly failed at helping working-class Americans.
Voters are slightly less negative on two issues. On climate change, a slim 51% majority says Biden has mostly failed, and 51% also feel that way about helping the African American community. Forty-eight percent of Black voters say he has mostly succeeded, but 44% feel the opposite.
The survey exposes massive partisan gaps, with at least three-quarters of Republicans responding negatively in each instance and two-thirds of Democrats being positive. There are two exceptions, and they’re both bad news for Biden: only 44% of Democrats say Biden has mostly succeeded on improving border security and 50% feel that way on unifying the country. Plus, more than half of independents think Biden has mostly failed on each issue.
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With Trump likely to be re-nominated by the GOP, it is worth comparing the current president’s numbers with the former president’s four years ago.
In 2020, voters believed the Trump administration had mostly failed on some of these same issues, although by smaller margins than Biden. When it comes to national security, both are in the red on making the country safer, but for Trump it was negative by 7 points and for Biden it’s negative by 31. Same story on border security (Trump -2 vs. Biden -47). There’s an even larger difference on the economy, where voters said Trump mostly succeeded by 20 points, while they say Biden has mostly failed by 25. The spread between the Trump and Biden administrations is closest on unifying the country, as Trump was negative 40 points and Biden is down 43 today.
By a 22-point margin voters believe the U.S. is weaker under Biden’s leadership (58% weaker, 36% stronger). Four years ago, voters also said Trump made America weaker, but by a narrower 5-point margin (47% weaker, 42% stronger), and by a 9-point margin they felt the same about then President Obama in 2016 (49% weaker, 40% stronger).
Meanwhile, for the third consecutive year, more voters say they have less money in their pocket than they did a year ago. Some 57% feel that way, while 14% say they have more cash. That’s mostly unchanged since last February (57% said less) and worse than in 2022 (50% said less).
Most, 73%, continue to rate conditions negatively (32% "only fair" and 41% "poor"). The number feeling optimistic about the economy stands at 26%, up from 22% a year ago – and the highest in two years. These current ratings are almost back to where Biden started, when 29% rated it positively and 69% negatively at the 100-day mark of his presidency (April 2021).
While five times as many Democrats (48%) as Republicans (9%) give the economy positive marks, Democrats (52%) also narrowly join majorities of Republicans (92%) and independents (81%) in saying it’s in "only fair" or "poor" shape.
In general, 72% of voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country, up 19 points from 53% at the start of Biden’s term. Since 2009, that dissatisfied number has been higher only five times -- twice on Biden’s watch. It hit 75% in August 2022 and 73% in January 2023.
Only 27% are satisfied with how things are going in the U.S. today, which is fewer than said the same at the beginning of Trump’s re-election year (43% in Jan. 2020) and Obama’s (34% in Jan. 2012).
"When the president declares that the state of the union is strong, Americans will largely disagree, and the major source of this disagreement is the economy," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Despite the vehement and somewhat condescending protestations of some economists, most feel they have less money to pay their bills and buy groceries, clothing, and gas than they did a year ago."
By a 23-point margin, more say Biden’s policies are hurting them (48%) rather than helping (25%), with 27% saying they haven’t made much difference.
When the same question was asked just over four years ago, the margin was only 5 points, with 37% saying Trump’s policies hurt and 32% saying they helped them. However, memories of that time are rosier (and that’s what matters). By a 13-point margin, voters now remember Trump’s policies as helping (45%) rather than hurting (32%) their family when he was president.
Currently, 42% approve of Biden’s job performance -- two points above his record low, while 58% disapprove. A year ago, it was 44% approve, 55% disapprove. His approval has been below 45% for the last year. His highest approval was 56% in June 2021, and it hasn’t hit 50% or better since September 2021.
Eighty-one percent of Democrats approve of Biden’s performance. Four years ago, 89% of Republicans felt the same about then President Trump.
Overall, Biden gets his best marks on the economy (yes, you read that correctly) though only 37% approve, while 62% disapprove. Larger numbers disapprove on China (35%-61%), inflation (34%-65%), the Israel-Hamas war (31%-65%), and immigration (31%-66%).
Biden’s 34% approval on inflation is a record high, up from a previous high of 31% in August 2023. On immigration, his 31% approval matches a previous low hit in November 2021.
Vice President Harris’s overall job ratings are nearly identical to her boss’s: 39% approve, 58% disapprove. Some 83% of those approving of Biden also approve of Harris.
Forty-one percent have a favorable view of Biden as a person vs. 59% unfavorable, for a net negative by 18 points. Trump does a bit better, although he’s underwater by 14 points, 43% favorable, 57% unfavorable. Four years ago, Biden was in positive territory by 4 points (50%-46%), while Trump was underwater by 11 (44%-55%).
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Trump can thank an unlikely source for his favorable edge over Biden: Democrats. Ten percent of them view Trump favorably while it is only 5% of Republicans for Biden. Each has a 30% favorable among independents, and slightly more Democrats have a positive view of Biden (82%) than Republicans have of Trump (79%).
Harris’s favorable score is -23 (37%-60%) and for GOP presidential candidate and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley it’s -14 (37%-51%).
Poll-pourri
On the Middle East conflict, the number siding with Israelis has fallen to 59%, down from 68% four months ago. Sympathy for Palestinians is growing, as 29% side with them, up from 18%. Since October, support for Palestinians has increased among Republicans (+5), independents (+14), and Democrats (+17 points). That shift among Democrats leads to a starker party divide now (43% side with Israelis vs. 42% siding with Palestinians) than in October (59% vs. 25%).
Views on backing Israel have mostly held steady since November: 30% of voters think the U.S. is too supportive, 27% not supportive enough, and 38% say it’s about right. Voters under age 30 are among those most likely to say the U.S. has been too supportive, as 47% feel that way.
Since November, approval of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war is down 8 points among all voters and down 10 points among Democrats.
By a 56%-40% margin, voters favor the U.S. continuing to provide financial aid to help Ukrainians fight Russia. Almost twice as many Democrats (76%) as Republicans (40%) want to keep helping Ukraine. Views among independents are split (47% favor, 46% oppose).
Most voters remain unhappy with Washington lawmakers, as 78% disapprove of Congress, including most Republicans (83%), independents (82%), and Democrats (72%).
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Conducted February 25-28, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,262 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (134) and cellphones (797) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (331). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
