Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s debt ceiling strategy clearly succeeded. He and House Republicans passed a debt ceiling bill with spending cuts and policy changes – and then forced President Joe Biden to negotiate and accept much of the Republican agenda.
McCarthy and his team won through foresight, methodical planning, careful delegation of responsibility and a disciplined process of communicating with the American people.
Week after week, day after day, McCarthy and his Republican allies communicated there could be no debt ceiling increase without spending cuts and policy changes. Since Biden’s no-cuts position was supported by only 24% of the American people, he was going to eventually lose. His refusal to negotiate was even more unpopular and unacceptable to most Americans.
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Historically, as few as 16% of Republicans have voted for debt ceiling increases under Democrat Presidents. For Speaker McCarthy to hold together 67% of his conference was an historic achievement for an historic bill (this was the first spending cut ever attached to a debt ceiling increase).
Where should House Republicans go from here?
I wrote my new book, "March to the Majority," partially as a history book. It details the 16-year effort to grow the first GOP House majority in 40 years and four years of successfully negotiating with President Bill Clinton for a series of conservative reforms (including welfare reform, the largest capital gains tax cut in history and four consecutive balanced budgets for the only time in our lifetime).
However, "March to the Majority" is also a handbook for today’s politics. In addition to building the first majority, we created the first re-elected majority in 68 years (since 1928). Our successes forced President Bill Clinton to come to the 1996 State of the Union and declare "the era of big government is over." Our political and policy achievements were the product of applying principles that work. They still work today.
Those same principles (strategic planning, getting ahead of the deadline, keeping a consistent message, understanding the absolute achievements necessary to win) were apparent in how McCarthy operated. He spent more than 100 days outmaneuvering and out-messaging Biden and the Democrats. (When Washington Democrats complain that they aren’t controlling the message in the establishment media, something real has happened.)
So, applying these principles – and thinking back to how we worked to achieve policy changes and build our political base – where might the House Republicans go from here?
First, House Republicans must remember President Abraham Lincoln’s rule that with popular sentiment anything is possible. And without popular sentiment, nothing is possible. The modern example is President Ronald Reagan, who in his farewell address said all his major victories were won by the American people (a point emphasized in an important book by Tom Evans called the "The Education of Ronald Reagan: The General Electric Years and the Untold Story of His Conversion to Conservatism").
So, Republicans must thoroughly understand where the American people are – and what they want Congress to achieve. All possible reforms and spending cuts Republicans could fight for must be considered through this lens.
This principle was brilliantly implemented by Speaker McCarthy’s debt ceiling strategy. He knew President Biden’s position was unpopular, and he knew the American people wanted the two sides to negotiate. Every time Biden or his press secretary said the White House wouldn’t negotiate with Republicans, they weakened their own position with the American people.
This principle can be expanded to include which fights to emphasize and which reforms to favor. The Parents’ Rights bill was a brilliant example. Eighty-nine percent of the American people favor parents having the right to know what is going on in their child’s school. Only the teachers unions are bitterly opposed to this.
At America’s New Majority Project, we are working to develop a platform of the American people. There are a surprising number of issues on which a 60% to 90% majority can be built. When the American people are with you, you have an enormous advantage in negotiating and campaigning.
The second thing Republicans must do is communicate with the American people constantly and consistently. Reagan taught all of us the power of message discipline. He stood for the power of tax cuts and deregulation to create jobs, take home pay, and prosperity.
He stood for the defeat of communism. He stood for a patriotic America. He said these things over and over – starting with his great October, 1964 speech for Barry Goldwater ("A Time for Choosing" is still worth watching to see how amazing Reagan was).
McCarthy repeatedly followed this principle for the last three and a half months. He made clear that he wanted to avoid a default, pass a bill with spending cuts and reforms, and negotiate to get to a solution.
He never wavered, whether it was in front of the White House, walking back and forth in the capitol, or in formal speeches or press conferences. This kind of message discipline – if you are advocating what the American people want – will defeat all the communications advantages inherent to the White House.
House Republicans must decide on their key messages from now through the 2024 election – and then methodically repeat, develop and improve them. As former Gov. Haley Barbour reminds people "about the time you are bored hearing yourself say the same thing, the average voter is just beginning to hear you."
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Third, with 222 House Republican members, a lot of different strategies and projects can be undertaken in parallel. In the next seven months, House Republicans can simultaneously investigate the corruption, waste, and law-breaking endemic in the current executive branch (and extending many years before President Biden took office).
They can use the results of those investigations to set up a series of reform-minded appropriations fights in which the American people will side with them. Each argument will make the Democrats seem more out-of-touch with average common-sense Americans.
House Republicans can build on the balanced budget ideas Chairman Jodey Arrington, R-TX, and the House Budget Committee Republicans are about to unveil. They can also advocate key issues that are popular and spend months building grassroots campaigns to support them.
They can develop an appropriations strategy so each of the 12 appropriations bills becomes an opportunity to highlight waste, fraud, and corruption – and cut spending in ways Democrats will find difficult to oppose. This would be especially powerful if it is tied into balancing the budget and built on the results of House investigations.
These three principles form a roadmap for the House GOP for the next two years. At the end of the road, Americans would enjoy more safety, prosperity, and freedom.
