Apartment Income REIT Corp. (“AIR”) (NYSE: AIRC) announced today second quarter results for 2021 and an increase to full year Same Store Revenue, NOI and FFO guidance.

Chief Executive Officer Terry Considine comments: “Business is good! Strong consumer demand is driving higher occupancy and higher rents. The efficiency of the AIR business model is confirmed with peer-best operating margins, low corporate G&A, driving a 5% increase in full year FFO guidance.”

“Asking rents have now surpassed the pre-COVID peak and are at or above their long-term trend. Improving consumer demand and strong execution led to signed new rates up 2.7% in the second quarter… and up 9.5% month-to-date in July.”

"We are on track to meet leverage goals. In April, we issued $342 million of equity and used the proceeds to reduce debt. We expect similar proceeds from 3Q activity to sell our New York and Chicago properties, and a like amount from 4Q activities to sell properties outright or to joint ventures, with all proceeds applied to debt reduction.”

“We upgraded our portfolio with the $223 million purchase of City Center on 7th, a 700-apartment home community located in Pembroke Pines, Florida. We will increase 4Q property sales so that this purchase is funded on a leverage neutral basis.”

"We are well positioned for an excellent second half of 2021 and an even better 2022; our current loss to lease of 10% suggests double-digit revenue growth."

Chief Financial Officer Paul Beldin adds: “Second quarter FFO per share of $0.52 was $0.02 above the high-end of our guidance range due to better than anticipated property operations and lower than anticipated offsite costs.”

“With 80% of 2021 anticipated leasing activity completed, we now expect full year Same Store NOI growth between (0.50%) and 1.00%, with Same Store property operations contributing an incremental $0.08 to FFO per share at the midpoint. Our full year FFO expectations, at the mid-point, are now 7% above our beginning of year expectations.”

Financial Results: Second Quarter Pro Forma FFO Per Share

AIR Operating Results: Second Quarter Same Store Revenue Up 0.8% Sequentially

The table below includes the operating results of the 92 properties of AIR that meet our Same Store definition. These properties comprise approximately 99% of AIR’s GAAP revenue.

Components of Same Store Revenue Growth – Second quarter year-over-year Same Store revenue growth was impacted by lower residential rental rates and increased bad debt expense, offset partially by higher average daily occupancy, increased late fees, and a recovery in commercial rents. The table below summarizes the change in the components of our Same Store revenue growth.

Same Store Rental Rates – We measure changes in rental rates by comparing, on a lease-by-lease basis, the effective rate on a newly executed lease to the effective rate on the expiring lease for that same apartment. A newly executed lease is classified either as a new lease, where a vacant apartment is leased to a new customer, or as a renewal.

The table below details changes in lease rates, as well as the weighted-average (blended) lease rates for leases executed in the respective period. Transacted leases are those that became effective during a reporting period and are therefore the best measure of immediate effect on current revenues. Signed leases are those executed during a reporting period and are therefore the best measure of current activity.

*July leasing results are preliminary and as of July 27, 2021.

Same Store Markets – Market conditions and leasing results in the second quarter exceeded our expectations at the beginning of the year. We continue to emphasize margin and long-tern NOI growth over short-term revenue growth. This approach contributed to sequential revenue growth of 80 basis points from the first to second quarter, and more importantly positioned the business for continued acceleration through the second half of the year and into 2022.

Weighted-average signed lease changes have now trended upwards for 10 consecutive months with July new lease rates up 9.5% through July 27, 2021.

Year-to-date, we have transacted 11,700 leases with a weighted-average rate increase of 70 basis points compared to the prior lease. We have signed an additional 4,000 leases with average rate increases of 8.6%. These 15,700 leases represent approximately 80% of our anticipated full year leasing activity and have weighted-average rent increases of 2.7%. We anticipate another 3,700 leases to be signed with blended rent changes in the range of 6%-8%, and a full year blended rate increase of approximately 3%. Today, asking rents are 6% above our pre-COVID peak.

In addition to accelerating market rents as shown above, leasing pace has also exceeded expectations, with second quarter leasing volume 65% ahead of 2020 and 10% above our previous high in the second quarter of 2019. Average Daily Occupancy remained stable in the second quarter despite significant increases in frictional vacancy due to the number of lease expirations in peak season. While occupancy remained stable, our leased percent, which is the percent of total apartment homes currently leased, improved from 90.7% to 93.1% during the second quarter. As of July 27, 2021, our leased percentage is now 95%; 800 basis points ahead of the same day last year and 400 basis points ahead of 2019.

Rent Collection Update

We measure residential rent collection as the amount of payments received as a percentage of all residential amounts owed. In the second quarter, we recognized 97.9% of all residential revenue owed during the quarter, treating the balance of 2.1% as bad debt. Of the 97.9% of residential revenue recognized, as of quarter-end, we collected in cash all but 120 basis points, with 96.7% of the residential rents collected. Year-to-date we have recognized 97.9% of all residential revenue and collected 97.6% of billed rents.

As of June 30, 2021, our proportionate share of gross residential accounts receivable was $12.7 million. After consideration of tenant security deposits and reserves for uncollectible amounts, our net exposure is $1.1 million. Most of this balance is expected to be collected during the third quarter of 2021. Of our uncollected accounts receivable, 73% relate to California residents.

The state of California has recently expanded the SB-91 rent relief program, to allow for 100% of past due rents to be paid by state funding (vs. 80% previously). As of June 30, 2021, we had received $0.7 million in payments under these programs. We remain cautiously optimistic that this program will allow us to recover rent that was uncollected in 2020 or 2021. We expect bad debt expense to decline as emergency ordinances are lifted that suspended legal action to collect past due rents.

Commercial rental income comprised 2.7% of second quarter revenue. In the second half of 2021, we expect an increased contribution from commercial tenants as their businesses re-open and rent payments resume.

Portfolio Management

Our portfolio of apartment communities is diversified across “A,” “B,” and “C+” price points, averaging “B/B+” in quality, and is also diversified across several of the largest markets in the United States. The table below relates to the AIR portfolio, excludes the properties retained by Aimco in the separation from AIR, and excludes the properties leased to Aimco for development or redevelopment.

Acquisitions and Dispositions – In the second quarter, we acquired City Center on 7th, a 700-apartment home community located in Pembroke Pines, Florida for $223 million. The acquisition was temporarily funded through borrowings on our revolving credit facility pending the completion of paired trade transactions later in 2021.

We expect an NOI cap rate of 4.2% during our first year of ownership. An additional 160 basis points of growth is expected as we invest approximately $10 million in capital enhancements and implement fully our best-in-class operating platform. Since acquisition 45 days ago, we've signed 27 new leases with rate increases averaging 21.5%, while increasing occupancy by 70 basis points to 97.1%.

Dispositions – We had no dispositions in the second quarter.

Balance Sheet

We seek to increase financial returns by using leverage with appropriate caution. We limit risk through our balance sheet structure, employing low leverage, primarily long-dated debt; and we build financial flexibility by maintaining ample unused and available credit; holding properties with substantial value unencumbered by property debt; maintaining an investment grade rating; and using partners’ capital when it enhances financial returns or reduces investment risk.

Components of Leverage

Our leverage includes our share of long-term, non-recourse property debt encumbering our apartment communities, together with outstanding borrowings under our revolving credit facility, our term loans, and our preferred equity.

* AIR’s Preferred equity is perpetual in nature; however, for illustrative purposes, we have computed the weighted-average maturity of our preferred OP Units assuming a 10-year maturity and preferred stock assuming it is called at the expiration of the no-call period.

** We have notes receivable from Aimco with an aggregate principal amount of $534 million. The notes will mature on January 31, 2024, and are secured by a pool of properties owned by Aimco. We consider the notes a reduction of leverage as we expect proceeds to be used to repay current amounts outstanding.

We entered 2021 with approximately $3.2 billion of net leverage. We anticipate ending 2021 with net leverage of approximately $2.5 billion. The April equity offering and 2021 property sales are expected to reduce leverage by $920 million. This decline is somewhat offset by borrowing to fund capital projects and the City Center acquisition at a loan to value of approximately 25%.

Equity Issuance & Financing Activity

As previously announced in April, we sold 7.825 million shares of our Class A Common Stock in a private placement to a large global real estate-focused investment firm for a cash purchase price of $342 million. Proceeds raised were used to repay $318.4 million of property debt with a weighted-average interest rate of 4.6%, which resulted in a ~0.9x reduction in Net Leverage to Adjusted EBITDAre. Prepayment penalties incurred in connection with the debt repayment totaled $33.8 million. The economic cost of these prepayment penalties is expected to be substantially recovered through lower future interest expense.

On July 15, 2021, we closed on a new $350 million term loan. The loan matures on January 14, 2023, inclusive of a six month extension option, and bears interest at a LIBOR spread of 95 basis points. We used the proceeds to repay borrowings on our revolving credit facility, whose $600 million capacity is fully available.

Leverage Reduction – On Track

We target Net Leverage to Adjusted EBITDAre below 6.0x, with a current target of 5.5x by year-end.

At June 30, 2021, Net Leverage to Adjusted EBITDAre was 7.3x, a 0.5x reduction from March 31, 2021.

Liquidity

We use our revolving credit facility for working capital and other short-term purposes and to secure letters of credit. At June 30, 2021, our share of cash and restricted cash was $67 million and we had the capacity to borrow up to $249 million, under our revolving credit facility, bringing total liquidity to $316 million. Pro-forma for the closing of the July term loan, our liquidity increased to $666 million.

We manage our financial flexibility by maintaining an investment grade rating and holding communities that are unencumbered by property debt. AIR has been rated BBB by Standard & Poor’s. As of June 30, 2021, we held unencumbered communities with property debt with an estimated fair market value of approximately $4.2 billion; an increase of 50% from December 31, 2020. We anticipate seeking an investment grade credit rating from Moody’s. In assigning ratings, Moody’s places significant emphasis on the amount of non-recourse property debt as percentage of the undepreciated book value of a company’s assets. To achieve Moody’s required thresholds, we estimate that a Moody’s investment grade rating will require property debt to approximate $1.8 billion. At June 30, 2021 our share of property debt is $2.6 billion.

Dividend

On July 27, 2021, our Board of Directors increased our quarterly cash dividend from $0.43 to $0.44 per share of AIR Common Stock. This amount is payable on August 27, 2021, to stockholders of record on August 13, 2021.

2021 Outlook

At the midpoint, we expect FFO per share to be $2.12, up $0.11 from our previous expectations due primarily to increased Same Store NOI.

Our guidance ranges are based on the following components:

In the third quarter, AIR anticipates Pro forma FFO between $0.51 and $0.55 per share.

Total Shareholder Return

The separation of AIR from Aimco created significant value for shareholders. The combined outperformance since the announcement of the separation translates to ~$1.3 billion of incremental shareholder value creation, or approximately $8.00 per share. This accretive capital allocation decision, builds on a long-track record of delivering strong returns to shareholders.

AIR Strategic Objectives

We created AIR to be an efficient way to invest in U.S. multi-family real estate, due to its simplified business model and diversified portfolio of stabilized apartment communities. Upon AIR’s separation from Aimco, we identified 10 strategic objectives. The following table outlines our progress against these objectives.

Earnings Conference Call Information

Supplemental Information

The full text of this Earnings Release and the Supplemental Information referenced in this release is available on AIR’s website at investors.aircommunities.com.

Glossary & Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial and Operating Measures

Financial and operating measures found in this Earnings Release and the Supplemental Information include certain financial measures used by AIR management that are measures not defined under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (“GAAP”). Certain AIR terms and Non-GAAP measures are defined in the Glossary in the Supplemental Information and Non-GAAP measures reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measures.

About AIR

AIR is a real estate investment trust focused on the ownership and management of quality apartment communities located in the largest markets in the United States. AIR is one of the country’s largest owners and operators of apartments, with 96 communities in 12 states and the District of Columbia. AIR common shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol AIRC, and are included in the S&P 400. For more information about AIR, please visit our website at www.aircommunities.com.

Forward-looking Statements

This Earnings Release and Supplemental Information contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including, without limitation, statements regarding projected results and specifically forecasts of 2021 results, including but not limited to: NAREIT FFO, Pro forma FFO and selected components thereof; expectations regarding consumer demand, growth in revenue and strength of other performance metrics and models; expectations regarding sales of AIR apartment communities and the use of proceeds thereof; and AIR liquidity and leverage metrics. We caution investors not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements are based on management’s judgment as of this date, which is subject to risks and uncertainties. Risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations include, but are not limited to: the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on AIR’s business and on the global and U.S. economies generally, and the ongoing, dynamic and uncertain nature and duration of the pandemic, all of which heightens the impact of the other risks and factors described herein, and the impact on entities in which AIR holds a partial interest, and the impact of governmental lockdowns on AIR’s residents, commercial tenants, and operations; real estate and operating risks, including fluctuations in real estate values and the general economic climate in the markets in which we operate and competition for residents in such markets; national and local economic conditions, including the pace of job growth and the level of unemployment; the amount, location and quality of competitive new housing supply; the timing and effects of acquisitions and dispositions; changes in operating costs, including energy costs; negative economic conditions in our geographies of operation; loss of key personnel; AIR’s ability to maintain current or meet projected occupancy, rental rate and property operating results; expectations regarding sales of apartment communities and the use of proceeds thereof; insurance risks, including the cost of insurance, and natural disasters and severe weather such as hurricanes; financing risks, including the availability and cost of financing; the risk that cash flows from operations may be insufficient to meet required payments of principal and interest; the risk that earnings may not be sufficient to maintain compliance with debt covenants, including financial coverage ratios; legal and regulatory risks, including costs associated with prosecuting or defending claims and any adverse outcomes; the terms of laws and governmental regulations that affect us and interpretations of those laws and regulations; possible environmental liabilities, including costs, fines or penalties that may be incurred due to necessary remediation of contamination of apartment communities presently or previously owned by AIR; Aimco’s and AIR’s relationship with each other after the business separation; the ability and willingness of Aimco and AIR and their subsidiaries to meet and/or perform their obligations under any contractual arrangements that were entered into among the parties in connection with the business separation and any of their obligations to indemnify, defend and hold the other party harmless from and against various claims, litigation and liabilities; and the ability to achieve some or all the benefits that we expect to achieve from the business separation; and such other risks and uncertainties described from time to time in filings by AIR with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).

In addition, AIR’s current and continuing qualification as a real estate investment trust involves the application of highly technical and complex provisions of the Internal Revenue Code, as amended (the “Code”), and depends on AIR’s ability to meet the various requirements imposed by the Code, through actual operating results, distribution levels and diversity of stock ownership.

Readers should carefully review AIRs financial statements and the notes thereto, as well as the section entitled “Risk Factors” in Item 1A of AIR’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020, and subsequent documents AIR files from time to time with the SEC. Readers should also carefully review the “Risk Factors” section of the registration statements relating to the business separation, that have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These filings identify and address other important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements reflect management’s judgment as of this date, and AIR assumes no obligation to revise or update them to reflect future events or circumstances. This earnings release does not constitute an offer of securities for sale.

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